top
Articles
  • Forecasting the number of inpatients in emergency department   [MASS 2012]
  • Author(s)
  • Yanfang Zhu, Xinli Zhang, Li Luo, Changzheng He, Yu Cao, Yingkang Shi
  • ABSTRACT
  • This article reviews and summarizes the current research about the emergency department both at home and abroad. Based on the existing theories and methods, in order to forecast the number of inpatients in emergency department accurately especially in a short time(one day or a week), we try and explore the appropriate model and methods through the following aspects: collect the data of the daily hospitalization amount of emergency breathing department in 2011 in West China Hospital in Chengdu, Sichuan; classify the data into four types (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly) and analyze the characteristics; use the SPSS version 17.0 to create different models and make further selection; apply the ARIMA model and Holt model to predicate the weekly amount, then compare the two results and analyze the reasons. At last, the conclusion on some problems which will be solved next is depicted, so as to help the hospital scatter the excessive ED presentations.
  • KEYWORDS
  • the number of inpatients; short-term forecasting; times series; ARIMA; Holt model
  • References
  • [1]
    Milner PC. Forecasting the demand on accident and emergency departments in health districts in the Trent region. Stat Med 1988; vol.7, pp.1061–72
    [2]
    Milner PC. Ten-year follow-up of ARIMA forecasts for attendances at accident and emergency department in the Trent region. Stat Med 1997; vol.16, pp. 2117–25.
    [3]
    Tandberg D, Qualls C. Time series forecasts of emergency department patient volume, length of stay, and acuity. Ann Emerg Med 1994; 23(2): 299– 306.
    [4]
    Jones SA, Joy MP. Forecasting demand of emergency care. Health Care Manag Sci 2002, 5(4), pp.297–305
    [5]
    Robert Champion, Leigh D Kinsman, Geraldine A Lee, Kevin A Masman, Elizabeth A May,Terence M Mills, Michael D Taylor, Paulett R Thomas and Ruth J Williams. Forecasting emergency department presentations. Exploring Nosokinetics .2007, vol 31.
    [6]
    Yan Xu, The application of Grey Model in the forecast analysis of the clinical and emergency department. Vol. 20, pp.166, 2003
    [7]
    Xiaoguo Lv, Jie Ren, Junmei Wu, Damei Lv. The forecast analysis of the clinical and emergency department for a hospital in the next five years. Chinese Helath Statistics, vol. 26, pp. 514, 2009
    [8]
    Dengxiao huang, Yongrong Gao,Qimin Huang. The application of ARMA and VARMA model in hospital management. Liberation Army Hospital Management Magazine, vol. 17, pp.412, 2010
    [9]
    Jiannan Yang, Xuejun Wang, Yonghua Liu, et al. Exploration of application of Holt’s linear smoothing in hospital management. China Hospital Statistics.; vol. 15, pp. 193-195 , 2008

Engineering Information Institute is the member of/source content provider to

http://www.scirp.org http://www.hanspub.org/ http://www.crossref.org/index.html http://www.oalib.com/ http://www.ebscohost.com/ http://www.proquest.co.uk/en-UK/aboutus/default.shtml http://ip-science.thomsonreuters.com/cgi-bin/jrnlst/jlresults.cgi?PC=MASTER&Full=journal%20of%20Bioequivalence%20%26%20Bioavailability http://publishers.indexcopernicus.com/index.php