• Forecasting the number of inpatients in emergency department   [MASS 2012]
  • Author(s)
  • Yanfang Zhu, Xinli Zhang, Li Luo, Changzheng He, Yu Cao, Yingkang Shi
  • This article reviews and summarizes the current research about the emergency department both at home and abroad. Based on the existing theories and methods, in order to forecast the number of inpatients in emergency department accurately especially in a short time(one day or a week), we try and explore the appropriate model and methods through the following aspects: collect the data of the daily hospitalization amount of emergency breathing department in 2011 in West China Hospital in Chengdu, Sichuan; classify the data into four types (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly) and analyze the characteristics; use the SPSS version 17.0 to create different models and make further selection; apply the ARIMA model and Holt model to predicate the weekly amount, then compare the two results and analyze the reasons. At last, the conclusion on some problems which will be solved next is depicted, so as to help the hospital scatter the excessive ED presentations.
  • the number of inpatients; short-term forecasting; times series; ARIMA; Holt model
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