• OpenAccess
  • Urgency and Necessity on Adjustment of China’s Current Agricultural Structure Based on the Stability and Developmental Trend Analyses of Pork Yield in China  [ASFE 2014]
  • DOI: 10.4236/jacen.2014.33B003   PP.16 - 23
  • Author(s)
  • Cangyu Jin, Huilong Lin
  • With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates would be a good choice for China in the future.

  • Pork Yield, H-P Filter, Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, Grassland Agriculture, Food Security, China
  • References
  • [1]
    National Bureau of Statistics of China.
    Ye, M.-H. (2012) Has Chinese Crop Production Increased Stably? Based on Crop Production H-P Filter in Major Crop Producing Areas: 1978-2009. Finance and Trade Research.
    Gao, F. (2009) The Volatility and Growth Trend of Grain Production in China: Empirical Study Based on H-P Filtering Method. Economist.
    Hodrick, R.J. and Prescott, E.C. (l980) Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Working Paper, Carnegie-Mellon University.
    Gao, T.M. (2009) Econometric Analysis and Modeling. Reviews Application and Cases. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing, 40-41.
    Chen, M.Y. and Yang, J.G. (2009) Based on Gray GM(1,1) Handan Urbanization Level Forecast. Mathematics in Practice and Theory.
    Ren, J.Z. (2013) Chinese Traditional Agricultural System Have to Change—The Worries of Nine Successive Increase of Grain Yield. Acta Parataculture Sinica.
    Ren, J.Z. (2005) On Developmental Process of Chinese Agrarian Culture and Evolution of Its Agriculture Priority Ideas. Agricultural History of China.
    Ren, J.Z. (2002) Establishment of an Agro-Grassland Systems for Grain Storage—A Thought on Restructure of Agricultural Frame Work in Western China. Acta Parataculture Sinica.
    Lin, H.L., Li, R.C., Jin, C.Y., Wang, H., Wei, M.H. and Ren, J.Z. (2014) China’s New Problems of Food Security Revealed by the Food Equivalent Unit .Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering, 1, 69-76.
    Lin, H.L. (2007) Pastoral Agriculture Science Goes through Structural Description Stage to Precise Development Stage. Pratacultural Science.

Engineering Information Institute is the member of/source content provider to